• March 25, 2022

Things Are Getting Better

In these letters, I look at the economy and tell you what I think, for better or worse. Recent missives were mostly negative. I regret being the bearer of bad news but sometimes that’s just reality.

• March 18, 2022

Brace for (Recession) Impact

The Strange Recession we are now entering is strange for another reason beside those I described last week. The last “normal” recession ended in 2009, almost 13 years ago. As with most unpleasant experiences, we don’t put a lot of energy into remembering what it was like.

• March 11, 2022

Another Strange Recession

Back in the good old days, recessions were simply the unpleasant part of the business cycle. Consumer choices, exuberant businesses, and monetary policy would periodically generate growth contractions. We debated the timing, but recessions didn’t come out of the blue.

• March 4, 2022

Change Squared

“How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

- Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises